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courage is contagious
Viewing cable 06BOGOTA1583, WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
06BOGOTA1583 | 2006-02-21 14:02 | 2011-02-27 13:01 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Bogota |
Appears in these articles: http://www.elespectador.com/wikileaks |
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 001583
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV KJUS CO
SUBJECT: WEEKLY ELECTION ROUNDUP
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Milton K. Drucker;
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)
¶1. (U) Election Updates for February 13-17.
¶2. (C) Prominent Political Consultants, Part I - The
Importance of a Congressional Majority: Three prominent
political consultants told us on February 15 that a
Congressional majority for Uribe's second term may be less
vital than many believe. Colombia traditionally affords new
presidents a two-year honeymoon in which much can be achieved
with good arguments (and pork, when necessary). It is only
afterwards that electoral calculations come into play, making
progress on a president's agenda more difficult. A
re-elected President may not enjoy quite such a honeymoon,
but it is likely that Uribe will continue to hold many cards
no matter who is elected to Congress (septel).
¶3. (C) Prominent Political Consultants, Part II - the Future
of the Opposition: The same political consultants said that
re-election is hindering the trajectory of Colombia's younger
politicians. The traditional figures, including former
presidents, have a new lease on their political lives as a
result of the election ruling. For example, former President
Cesar Gaviria is likely to be the Liberal nominee in 2010.
Gaviria doesn't deny this, but says it is too soon to say
what he will do. Gaviria told us he offered the top spot on
their Senate list to former Foreign Minister Maria Emma Mejia
more than a year ago, but she turned it down. After Mejia's
recent falling out with the Polo DemocraticoAlternativo
(Polo), Gaviria believes she regrets her decision not to
acceptGaviria's offer. Re-election may make for some
interesting opposition bedfellows, however. Senator German
Vargas Lleras, an Uribe supporter who is generally on the
outs with the President, may rejoin the Liberal Party after
the elections, the consultants predicted. (Embassy comment:
we view this as plausible.)
¶4. (C) Lottery Millionaire Who Gave Funds to Uribe Arrested:
President Uribe publicly admitted his 2002 campaign accepted
100 million pesos (about USD 40,000) from a commercial entity
controlled by Enilce Lopez, aka "La Gata," who was arrested
by the Fiscalia the week of February 13 on suspicion of money
laundering activity. Multi-millionaire Lopez is a
controversial figure on the Atlantic coast, where she
controls, inter alia, numerous lottery concessions. While
press reports have noted that La Gata was not under formal
criminal investigation in 2002, she has been publicly linked
to illegal organizations (including the late drug trafficker
Gonzalo Rodriguez Gacha, aka "El Mexicano") since prior to
¶2002. Lopez's son, Hector Lopez, continues to be a House
candidate on the Conservative Party ticket in Bolivar
Department. Party President Carlos Holguin has twice asked
local officials to consider removing him from the
Conservative list. Party officials in Bolivar have not made
a final decision. (The political advisor to Prosecutor
General Iguaran tells us the case against La Gata is strong
and that she will not likely get out on bail.)
¶5. (U) Televised Presidential Debates in the Works: The
National Electoral Council (CNE) announced that there will be
three televised, 60-minute presidential debates starting some
time after April 6. Participation will be open to all
candidates. The debates will be broadcast on all national TV
and radio stations.
¶6. (C) Name Recognition: The parties led by AntanasMockus
and Enrique Penalosa (both former mayors of Bogota) and
Senator Carlos Moreno de Caro -- all of whom have both strong
name and face recognition among voters -- have each opted for
a logo including some form of each leader's photo. Early in
the week, the National Electoral Council rejected the use of
these proposed personalized logos on the Congressional
ballot. In a course change, however, the CNE then decided to
permit only Mockus' party to use his photo, arguing that he
was not running for Congress and therefore would not get an
unfair advantage by having his face on a congressional ballot
paper. Penalosa and Moreno are appealing the CNE rulings in
their cases; decisions are expected before February 25. CNE
rulings to date have lacked consistency and it is not clear
how it will rule on these appeals.
¶7. (U) Presidential Candidates and the FTA: President
Uribe, in the U.S. this week to finalize Free Trade Agreement
negotiations between Colombia and the United States, may be
the only presidential candidate who supports the FTA.
Liberal candidates Horacio Serpa and Rafael Pardo have
publicly come out against the FTA in recent weeks, as have
Polo Democratico Alternativo hopefuls Antonio Navarro and
Carlos Gaviria (Gaviria called it "harmful"). Antanas
Mockus, running on his eponymous ticket, is not against the
FTA, but is concerned that Colombia is not broadening its
trade relationships with other countries and Mercosur.
DRUCKER
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