VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #1452 1022248
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 122248Z APR 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9811
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 3256
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 9317
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ APR QUITO 0245
RUEHSG/AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO 0423
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA 6674
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 4218
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

S E C R E T LIMA 001452      

SIPDIS      

SIPDIS      

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2016   TAGS: PGOV PINR PE
RUN-OFF,   
SEEKS EMBASSY'S ASSISTANCE IN CEMENTING DEMOCRATIC   COALITION AGAINST HUMALA         



Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies.  Reason: 1.4(d)   .      

¶1.  (S)  SUMMARY:  APRA party Co-Secretary General and  Congressman Jorge del Castillo, in a 4/12 breakfast with   Polcouns, said that the Apristas were confident that their   presidential candidate Alan Garcia would reach the run-off   against Union por el Peru's Ollanta Humala.  Del Castillo   explained that APRA was looking to cement a coalition of   democratic parties to defeat Humala in the second round and   to promote governability after Garcia takes office.  He   requested the Embassy's good offices in helping convince  Unidad Nacional's Lourdes Flores to concede once it becomes   clear that she cannot catch Garcia (Flores has vowed to   remain in the race "until the last ballot is counted") and in   establishing links to Christian evangelical candidate   Humberto Lay Sun, who captured four percent of the vote.  END   SUMMARY.     

 ¶2.  (S)  According to del Castillo:      

--  APRA had legal representatives (personeros), who   witnessed and recorded the vote counts at practically all of   the 88,481 voting tables, and the reports they filed on the   results have Garcia holding off Flores, although the final   margin may be in the 50,000-70,000 vote range, rather than   the 119,698 reported by the Office of National Electoral   Processes (ONPE) in its latest vote count (Septel).     

 --  Flores and her Unidad Nacional (UN) team have much the   same information, and know that they have lost.      

--  Nonetheless, Flores refuses to concede, vowing to remain   in the race "until the last ballot is counted."      

--  On the one hand, Flores' position is understandable, as,   pushed by her spokesman, UN Congressman Xavier Barron, she   went out on a limb by proclaiming victory over Garcia on   election night and now has UN activists pressing her to hold   out until all the votes are in.  (NOTE:  Barron has since   criticized ONPE for not including the results from challenged   tally sheets in its vote counts, even though the law requires   ONPE to omit these results until the National Electoral Board   rules on their validity - See Septel.  END NOTE.)      

--  On the other hand, it could take three weeks for all of   the votes to be counted and certified.  Three weeks is an   eternity in politics, and if the democratic forces remain   divided during that time, leaving the campaigning to Humala,   it will enable the latter to establish an unchallenged   momentum that will be difficult to counter later.      

--  By Easter Sunday sufficient results should be in to  demonstrate clearly that Flroes has no/no chance to overtake   Garcia.     

 --  At that time, the Embassy could greatly assist the effort   to unite the democratic forces against Humala by using its   good offices to encourage Flores to concede and enter into   discussions with APRA on cooperating in the run-off campaign   to defeat Humala and on establishing a working relationship   and/or co-participation in the Garcia administration that   would follow.     

 --  The Embassy's assistance in establishing links between   APRA and Christian evangelical candidate Humberto Lay Sun   (who received over four percent of the vote) would also be   appreciated.     

 --  He (del Castillo) has already opened discussions with   Jose Miguel Morales, President of CONFIEP (Peru's largest   business association) on the need to prioritize cooperation   between an APRA government and the private sector in   addressing social needs in the rural sector:  "We agreed that   failure to address these needs will result in Humala being   elected in the first round in 2011."      

¶3.  (S)  Polcouns said that he would inform his superiors   about del Castillo's requests.   POWERS