VZCZCXRO4570
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHEG #0129/01 0251508
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 251508Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1459
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 1241
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 0407
RUEHDJ/AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 0001
RUEHAE/AMEMBASSY ASMARA 0187
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0255

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000129 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA, AF/SPG, AF/E, NAIROBI FOR TRIMBLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2019 
TAGS: PREL KCRM SU SO EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT PROMOTING PEACE AND STABILITY IN SUDAN, 
SOMALIA REF: A. KHARTOUM 48 B. 08 CAIRO 977 C. CAIRO 69 Classified By: Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs William R. Stewart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ----------------- Concern for Sudan -----------------
1.(C) Ahmed Abu Zeid, MFA Cabinet Advisor on African Affairs, told us on January 22 that the Government of Egypt (GOE) is focused on the upcoming ICC decision of whether to issue a warrant for the arrest of Sudanese President Bashir. Egypt expects that the ICC decision will come in mid-February. Abu Zeid stated that it is important for the UNSC to hold a meeting after the ICC announcement to address "wider perspectives" and "manage the consequences" of the decision. He said the UNSC needs to discuss "how an ICC arrest warrant will affect Sudan's stability, security and the implementation of the CPA." Abu Zeid stated that the UNSC could decide to implement Article 16 of the Rome Statute, after the announcement, to delay further action on the Bashir case for a year. He said that such action would show the various Sudanese people and parties that the international community is concerned with maintaining the country's stability.

2.(C) Abu Zeid told us that the GOE is also concerned about the Justice and Equality Movement's (JEM) recent JEM attacks on other rebel groups (reftel A). The GOE believes that these attacks are a move by the JEM to convince the international community that it is the only Darfuri opposition group that needs to participate in negotiations with the Government of Sudan (GOS). Abu Zeid stated that Egypt wants to avoid "recreating the same problem as in Abuja" where only one group signed the peace accord with the GOS. The GOE is afraid that "direct contact" with USG officials in Washington (NFI) in early January emboldened the JEM to take its recent military action. Abu Zeid asked if the meetings with JEM representatives signaled a policy shift in Washington, and he asked if we could provide some clarity on our policy toward Sudan, Darfur, and engaging with rebel groups such as the JEM. (Note: Egypt expelled JEM officials from Cairo after the group attacked the city of Omdurman in May 2008 (reftel B). End Note.) -------------------------- Closely Monitoring Somalia --------------------------

3.(C) After what Egypt considered "productive" meetings with Shaykh Sharif in Cairo on January 13 (reftel C), Abu Zeid was set to travel to Djibouti on January 23 to monitor efforts to create a national unity government in Somalia. He said the GOE is interested in the election of the new Somali President, and if parliament will be enlarged. He asked if the U.S. preferred the election of the president to be held before or after the enlargement of the Somali parliament. Abu Zeid said that Egypt is keen to begin working on a coordinated effort that will bring peace and stability to Somalia and address the piracy phenomenon. He felt the initial meeting of the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somalia (CGPCS) in New York was "fruitful." Abu Zeid said Egypt is working on convening Working Group 4, which focuses on improving diplomatic and public information. Although the meeting will be held in Cairo, he said the GOE has not yet selected a date for the meeting.

4.(C) Comment: Egypt's policy priority in the Horn of Africa is stability. Instability, especially in Sudan, can affect the flow of Nile Water into Egypt and could increase the flow of refugees into Egypt. As such, Egypt is wary of the both the upcoming ICC announcement and the JEM because it feels that both have the potential to destabilize Sudan. Egypt therefore strongly advocates invoking Article 16 to suspend action against Bashir after the issuance of an ICC arrest warrant in order to preserve Sudan's stability. Egypt is hopeful that its involvement in supporting the Djibouti process will lead to peace and stability in Somalia. The GOE did not invite Shaykh Aweys' Alliance to Re-Liberate Somalia (ARS) wing to recent talks in Cairo because, like the JEM, CAIRO 00000129 002 OF 002 Cairo sees ARS in Asmara as a threat to the Djibouti accord and stability in Somalia. Egypt continues to be keen to coordinate with the U.S. on policies in Somalia. SCOBEY