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DE RUEHTRO #0070 0291509
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O P 291509Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4386
INFO RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI 4910
RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHEG/AMEMBASSY CAIRO PRIORITY 1389
RUEHTU/AMEMBASSY TUNIS PRIORITY 0744
RUEHAS/AMEMBASSY ALGIERS PRIORITY 0876
RUEHRB/AMEMBASSY RABAT PRIORITY 0819
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0993
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0680
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0162

C O N F I D E N T I A L TRIPOLI 000070 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR NEA/MAG 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  1/29/2019 
TAGS: PREL LY EG AU
SUBJECT: LIBYA EXPECTS TO WIN CHAIRMANSHIP OF AU ASSEMBLY 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Gene A. Cretz, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy - Tripoli, U.S. Dept of State. REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 

¶1. (C) Libya appears to have secured North African support for its bid to take over chairmanship of the African Union in 2009. In a January 26 consultative meeting of Cen-Sad ministers held in Tripoli, Libya gained the "unanimous support" of all present, according to Egyptian PolCouns Ahmed Abdul Halim, who served as his delegation's notetaker.  With the regional rotation of the chairmanship falling to North Africa in 2009, Abdul Halim sees no obstacles to Muammar al-Qadhafi achieving his goal of holding the AU chairmanship during the tenth anniversary of the Sirte Proclamation.  While Libya's representatives at the meeting did not mention the upcoming election, each visiting delegation voiced support for Libya's candidacy, leading Abdul Halim to assume Libya had coordinated the message with Sahel representatives prior to the meeting.  

¶2. (C) Seemingly on track to secure the chairmanship, Libyan representatives focused on building support for proclamation of a "United States of Africa" at the 12th session of the AU Assembly.  Libyan diplomats view the AU Assembly agenda - which devotes an entire day's discussion on Feburary 1 to the subject of integration - as a victory for Muammar al-Qadhafi's vision of a united Africa.  Abdul Halim reported that MFA Secretary for African Affairs Ali Treiki passionately argued that Cen-Sad members should support installing al-Qadhafi as the President and name a Vice-President during the February summit, with other departments to be formed in time.  Senegalese, Gambian, and Chadian representatives reportedly responded favorably to the proposal.  

¶3. (C) Comment: While there is little chance that Libya will achieve al-Qadhafi's vision of a United States of Africa in the short term, chairmanship of the AU will be a significant symbolic victory for al-Qadhafi, who sees himself as the father of both the AU and an eventual united African government.  In typical Libyan fashion, the GOL's efforts are long on rhetoric and short on proposals to address the political, legal and logistical quandaries that constituting a United States of Africa will entail, or of the bureaucratic capacity that would be required for the GOL to effectively capitalize on having al-Qadhafi declared as President of a notional United States of Africa within the next year.  We expect the calls for African unity, which have been relatively subtle to date (by Jamahiriya standards), to give way to a surge of cash and backroom deals to secure consensus for Libya's position.  Lending urgency to the project is the fact that the GOL is on the clock: Libya seeks a high-profile announcement of progress - real or imagined - toward implementation of al-Qadhafi's vision of pan-African by September, which marks the 40th anniversary of the coup that brought him to power and the 10th anniversary of the founding Proclamation of the AU.  End Comment.  
CRETZ