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INFO RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 001850 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR NEA/ELA AND DRL/NESCA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/24/2029 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM KIRF EG
SUBJECT: NDP INSIDER ON UPCOMING ELECTIONS AND LEGISLATION 
 
REF: A. CAIRO 1181 
     ¶B. CAIRO 1059 
     ¶C. CAIRO 814 
     ¶D. CAIRO 464 
 
Classified By: Economic-Political Minister-Counselor 
Donald A. Blome for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. KEY POINTS 
 
-- (C) On September 17, ruling National Democratic Party 
(NDP) Shura Council Member Hossam Badrawi told visiting 
NEA/ELA desk officer and poloff that high turnout in the 2010 
parliamentary elections would benefit the NDP over the Muslim 
Brotherhood. 
 
-- (C) He called for a number of steps to bolster the 
elections' legitimacy and increase voter turnout, including 
the presence of international monitors.  He recommended that 
the USG encourage the GOE to accept such monitors under the 
auspices of a "neutral, international body." 
 
-- (C) Badrawi said President Mubarak has decided that the 
2010 elections will be in the same single-district format as 
the 2005 parliamentary elections, as opposed to a party-list 
system. 
 
-- (C) Badrawi is pressing for legislative progress in the 
coming parliamentary session, which will begin in November, 
on issues such as replacing the Emergency Law with a 
counterterrorism law guaranteeing civil liberties, church 
building, combating torture, and strengthening NGOs. 
 
¶2. (C) Comment: Badrawi is also a member of the influential 
NDP policies committee, a confidante of presidential son 
Gamal Mubarak and a member of the quasi-governmental National 
Council for Human Rights (NCHR).  He is an energetic advocate 
for improvements on human rights and political participation, 
but has not been successful to date in convincing the GOE to 
implement the recommendations he has pursued through the NCHR 
and on his own (refs A, C).  The degree to which Badrawi has 
alienated conservative NDP members is unclear; a recent press 
report alleged resentment within the party over Badrawi's 
criticism of the GOE.  Badrawi raises a number of important 
issues regarding the 2010 upcoming elections.  We will report 
septel on our recommendations for how the USG can best pursue 
its election-related interests through diplomacy and 
USG-funded programs.  End comment. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Elections: Higher Turnout Is Key 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Badrawi assessed that a large voter turnout in the 
2010 Shura Council and People's Assembly elections would 
favor the NDP over the Muslim Brotherhood.  He attributed the 
strong showing of MB-linked candidates in the fall 2005 
People's Assembly elections to low voter turnout that 
included a disproportionate percentage of MB supporters. 
Badrawi said that the majority of Egyptians are not 
MB-supporters and do not want to become like Palestinians in 
Gaza "ruled by Hamas."  Therefore, Badrawi continued, he 
would like to see steps taken to encourage greater turnout in 
¶2010. 
 
¶4. (C) To increase voter turnout, Badrawi called for improved 
voter registration, allowing expatriate Egyptians to vote, 
and removing police from polling stations.  Badrawi opined 
that the High Election Commission should urge the public to 
vote by citing improvements in transparency and the 
registration process.  He said NCHR plans to air radio 
advertisements to encourage voter turnout.  Badrawi 
questioned whether the GOE has the political will to hold 
more open elections with greater turnout, asserting that it 
would be "easier" for the GOE to follow past practices. 
 
--------------------------------- 
A Call for International Monitors 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Badrawi believed international monitors would increase 
the public's confidence in the legitimacy of the elections, 
and he said he is privately advocating within the NDP for the 
GOE to accept such monitors.  He recommended early USG 
engagement with the GOE on accepting international monitors 
under the auspices of a "neutral, international body."  He 
also suggested the U.S. provide technical assistance for a 
domestic monitoring effort coordinated by NCHR.  (Note: 
According to the AID-funded National Democratic Institute, 
NCHR has not yet decided what role it wants to play with 
 
CAIRO 00001850  002 OF 002 
 
 
domestic monitors.  End note.) 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
Mubarak's Decision on Single-District Elections 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6. (C) Badrawi said President Mubarak had recently decided 
definitively that the 2010 elections would be single-district 
contests as they were in 2005, with the two winning 
candidates in each district gaining seats.  Badrawi said he 
and other NDP colleagues had strongly argued for a party list 
system where nation-wide voting would determine each party's 
share of the seats (ref D).  Badrawi said he supported a list 
system because it would strengthen parties and help women and 
the Coptic minority. 
 
¶7. (C) Badrawi speculated that Mubarak made this decision 
partly out of personal pique at Badrawi for calling strongly 
for ending the Emergency Law in the NCHR's September 
submission to the UN Human Rights Council's February 2010 
Universal Periodic Review (UPR) of Egypt.  (Comment:  We 
believe Mubarak's decision was probably more of an attempt to 
enforce party discipline in reaction to NDP reformers 
advocating for a party-list system, than a direct response to 
Badrawi and the NCHR's UPR report.  Mubarak also probably 
wanted to avoid the legislative and practical difficulties of 
changing the electoral rules so late in the game.  End 
comment.) (Note:  We will report septel on the September UPR 
submissions by NCHR and NGOs.  End note.) 
 
--------------- 
New Legislation 
--------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Badrawi predicted that passing a uniform places of 
worship law with equal treatment for Muslims and Copts "would 
take time."  He said that President Mubarak is directly 
involved in the process and believes that any new legislation 
should preserve the presidency's role in approving the 
building of new churches.  He called for a counterterrorism 
(CT) law guaranteeing civil liberties to replace the 
Emergency Law, and acknowledged GOE resistance.  (Note:  Per 
ref B, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Shehab told the 
Ambassador in May that the MOI had not approved the draft CT 
law because it wanted a longer pre-trial detention period. 
End note.) 
 
¶9. (C) Badrawi said he is pressing for a new anti-torture law 
that would penalize police officers for ordering subordinates 
to commit torture, as well as senior officers who are aware 
of torture taking place.  He called for amendments to the 
current NGO law that would transfer the power to dissolve 
NGOs from the executive branch to the courts.  Badrawi 
predicted that GOE anxiety over the coming elections would 
delay action on controversial legislation. 
Scobey