VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHRL #1296/01 2891501
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 161501Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY BERLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5511
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BERLIN 001296 
 
NOFORN 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: GERMANY COULD HAVE NEW COALITION GOVERNMENT WITHIN 
TWO WEEKS 
 
REF: BERLIN 1271 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor George Glass for reasons 1. 
4 (b,d). 
 
¶1.  (C//NF) Summary: A well-placed Free Democratic Party 
(FDP) source told Emboffs October 15 that Chancellor Angela 
Merkel aims to finish coalition negotiations between her 
Christian Democratic Union, the Christian Social Union, and 
the FDP by October 18, but that the FDP viewed a completion 
of October 23 to be more feasible.  Either date would allow 
the parties to hold conventions to approve the agreement 
during the following days and enable the Bundestag to elect 
Angela Merkel Chancellor on October 28, one day after the 
first scheduled meeting of the new Bundestag.  FDP source 
said that in any case, the virtually certain future Foreign 
Minister Guido Westerwelle would want to do the Chancellor 
"the favor" of ensuring her election before her upcoming 
visit to Washington on November 2.  A worst case scenario -- 
and least likely -- is that she would be elected by November 
8, source said, just prior to the November 9 fall of the Wall 
anniversary.  Source provided Emboffs with a list of the 15 
mostly domestic-oriented points included in the FDP campaign 
platform that it wants to see included in the coalition 
agreement, including withdrawal of the remaining 
non-strategic nuclear weapons from German soil, the only one 
addressing foreign policy (reftel).  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (C//NF) Source provided Emboffs with a schedule of the 
next days of the coalition negotiations.  The schedule showed 
that the various working groups of the negotiations would 
each report to the plenary (see reftel) October 16-17, with a 
smaller group of the plenary then meeting on October 17 to 
iron out disputed issues and beginning discussions on 
division of the ministerial portfolios between the parties. 
Chancellor Merkel, source said, hopes to wrap up the 
coalition negotiations on October 18 after a full-day plenary 
session, a goal he described as "very ambitious but 
possible."  Source noted that the FDP was not as optimistic 
that a conclusion could be reached as of October 18, and 
scheduled three more plenary sessions for October 21, 22 and 
¶23.  He noted that it is feasible that a coalition agreement 
could be concluded by that date and that the three parties 
would then hold conventions to approve the agreement in the 
days following. 
 
¶3.  (C//NF) This schedule would enable the Bundestag to then 
elect Merkel as Chancellor October 28, the day after its 
first plenary.  Source noted, however, that the FDP has 
alerted the party of three possible  party convention dates: 
October 25 -- if things go as plans, November 1 -- if 
negotiations are prolonged, or November 8 -- worst case 
scenario.  Source said that it would not be "unattractive" 
for Westerwelle to attend the EU Summit October 29-30.  This 
would be a good "debut" for Westerwelle, he added.  In the 
event negotiations are prolonged, source said that 
Westerwelle would like to do the Chancellor "the favor" by 
enabling her to be elected Chancellor before she travels to 
Washington November 2. 
 
¶4.  (C//NF) About the actual negotiations, FDP source 
provided Emboffs with 15 points from their election platform 
that the FDP would like to see included in the coalition 
agreement.  The majority of the 15 points focus on domestic 
economic and social issues, including structural tax reform, 
amendments to the social welfare and pension systems, and 
support for education.  The points also include the goal of 
ending what is termed "unnecessary and ineffective" measures 
to censor the internet and preventing domestic military 
deployments.  The final point, and the only one that concerns 
foreign policy, calls for "entering negotiations with our 
allies" in order to achieve a withdrawal of nuclear weapons 
stationed in Germany during the next legislative term. 
(Note: In response to Emboff questions, source said that the 
goal really is to develop a plan for the withdrawal of the 
nuclear weapons.  End note.)  FDP source said that 
conscription is a disputed issue that is still under 
discussion.  Regarding Turkey's EU membership, FDP source 
said that the FDP would rather not include anything on this 
subject in the agreement, arguing that it will not be at 
issue during the next four years. 
 
¶5.  (C//NF) FDP source assessed that about 85 percent of the 
issues will be decided during this coming weekend.  The FDP 
intends to keep the remaining 15 percent of the issues open 
and use them as bargaining tools for decisions on the 
division of ministerial portfolios.  Regarding portfolios, 
FDP source commented off the record that current Interior 
Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble had been trying to serve as the 
 
CDU's "grey eminence,"  seeking to exert influence over many 
of the working groups, beyond his own working group of 
internal security.  Source said that the FDP viewed his role 
negatively, and that he was referred to within the FDP as "an 
angry old man."  He indicated that he hoped the CDU would 
also view his role as counterproductive.  Source, however, 
noted that the agreement will only state which ministerial 
portfolios each party will receive, without providing any 
names.  He stressed that it is up to each party to then 
decide who will fill those positions. 
 
 
Murphy